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Analyzing Attrition: Predictive Model of Dropout Causes among Engineering Students

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Conference

2024 ASEE Annual Conference & Exposition

Location

Portland, Oregon

Publication Date

June 23, 2024

Start Date

June 23, 2024

End Date

July 12, 2024

Conference Session

First-Year Programs Division Technical Session 7: Retention & Success

Tagged Division

First-Year Programs Division (FYP)

Tagged Topic

Diversity

Permanent URL

https://peer.asee.org/46574

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Paper Authors

biography

Cristian Saavedra-Acuna Universidad Andres Bello, Concepcion, Chile

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Cristian Saavedra is an assistant professor at the School of Engineering at the University Andres Bello
in Concepcion, Chile. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Electronics Engineering and a master’s degree in Technological Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Cristian is certified in Industrial Engineering, University
Teaching, Online Hybrid and Blended Education, and Entrepreneurship Educators. He teaches industrial
engineering students and carries out academic management activities. His main research interest areas are Innovation, entrepreneurship, engineering education, gender perspective studies in STEM education, and
data analysis and visualization.

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biography

Monica Quezada-Espinoza Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile Orcid 16x16 orcid.org/0000-0002-0383-0179

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Monica Quezada-Espinoza is a professor and researcher at the School of Engineering at the Universidad Andres Bello in Santiago, Chile, where currently collaborates with the Educational and Academic Innovation Unit, UNIDA (for its acronym in Spanish), as an instructor in active learning methodologies. Her research interest topics involve university education in STEM areas, faculty and continuing professional development, research-based methodologies, community engagement projects, evaluation tools and technology, and gender issues in STEM education. https://orcid.org/0000- 0002-0383-0179

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biography

Danilo Alberto Gomez Correa Universidad Andres Bello, Concepcion, Chile

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Danilo Gómez is an assistant professor at the School of Engineering at the Andrés Bello University in Concepción, Chile. He has a Master's degree in applied statistics and Industrial engineering. In addition, Danilo has certifications in data science, machine learning, and big data.
In his role as a teacher, Danilo specializes in teaching industrial engineering students and carries out academic management activities. His main research areas can be reviewed at: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8735-7832

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Abstract

This Complete Research develops a predictive model to elucidate factors affecting dropout rates in the first two years of tertiary education, using data from 1266 students at a School of Engineering in Chile. Focusing on socio-demographic variables from an institutional survey, such as family background, economic status, and employment, the study employs a quantitative, non-experimental methodology alongside Machine Learning techniques within a Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) framework. Of the methods tested, including Neural Networks (NN), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Naive Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT), and Logistic Regression (LR), the NN model proved most effective, demonstrating high Accuracy, Sensitivity, and Specificity (all above 0.7). A Weight-Based Feature Importance analysis identified economic factors, family composition, and social relationships as the top variables impacting dropout. This research enhances our understanding of factors influencing student attrition in the School of Engineering. The model acts as an early alert system, identifying potential dropouts and at-risk student groups before they commence their studies. Consequently, it allows the implementation of early interventions, such as financial support, improved study methods, and professional counseling, thereby significantly reducing dropout rates and improving student success.

Saavedra-Acuna, C., & Quezada-Espinoza, M., & Gomez Correa, D. A. (2024, June), Analyzing Attrition: Predictive Model of Dropout Causes among Engineering Students Paper presented at 2024 ASEE Annual Conference & Exposition, Portland, Oregon. https://peer.asee.org/46574

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